Biggest Stock Market Mistakes to Avoid “ Don’t follow the herd blindly” – Part I

“ You learn the stock market by trial and error. Without making mistakes in the market, you will never be able to progress in it”
Rakesh Jhunjhunwalla – Veteran Indian Stock Investor


Always differentiate between gossip and research. With the technologic advancement, it is very easy to spread rumors about any scrip. SMS, chats and message boards made the task of spreading gossip very easy. Always check the source and reliability of the information. Invest with time horizon ( 1month, 3 months and 1 year and above). Never ever have more than 10 scrips in your portfolio ( at the maximum 15), otherwise tracking is very difficult.
Do your home work well
While choosing a stock for long term investment, you could use either the top-down approach or the bottom-up approach. In the former, you look for a good company in an Industry that is doing well (Eg. TISCO in the steel sector). In the latter, you scout for a company with good fundamentals, irrespective of the performance of the industry or the economy as the whole ( Eg. Reliance).
Don’t follow the herd blindly
Don’t buy (or sell) just because everybody are buying (or selling). For long term investment research the company as thoroughly as possible before deciding buy or sell. If it is not possible, invest through good balanced mutual fund schemes. Don’t buy in an overheated market and don’t sell when there is panic.

Happy New Year 2006

Dear Friends,
Here is a wish so big, it will last you right through to 2007:

HAVE A REALLY, REALLY GREAT NEW YEAR!
Wishing you a New Year filled with good health, new hope and new beginnings!
May year 2006 open up for you more opportunities, lead you onto the path of continued success, happiness and prosperity!
I wish ... that the coming year showers on you all that you ever wished for!Good luck and smiles, good cheer and every good thing on the earth
A Happy New Year!
WITH BEST WISHES,
Investor

Note:
Initially I started this blog just to share the stock tips I am receiving from various sources (including my own picks). But the scope of this blog going to change for better. I am going to concentrate on all aspects of personal finance rather than giving Stock Tips daily. You can expect two educative series to begin with. One is on investment strategies in stock market and the other is about “Stop – Loss Orders”. If you know Tamil, Please visit Mr.Bharathi’s
Blog (It is one the best Tamil Financial Literature I have ever read). His exceptional narration on Options would definitely make you richer in the New Year.

Sell Arvind Mills

Market News
Denim prices are decreasing. Most of the brokerages maintain SELL on Arvind Mills. I also feel that in the next 3 to 6 months Arvind Mills may lose it’s value around 20 – 30 %.

Stocks to watch
Goldiam Inter
Bannari A Spg
Piramyd Retail
HMT

Please see yesterday Traders call which are still valid
Calls form high profile Trader159
Buy ICSA India for a long term target of 900, 1400 with stoploss 605
Buy Paramount with a 2 months target of Rs160 with a SL 128

Buy GIPCL for investment of 4 weeks at Rs 70 with SL of Rs 67 and Expected at Rs 84

Equity calls from my Broker
15:27:36 - Carry the positions in Satyam Comp for the next day
15:25:34 - Our BTST call: Buy Nalco at Rs218.50 : Deepak
15:21:16 - Our BTST call: Buy HLL at CMP : Deepak
15:11:43 - Our BTST call of Cipla is going strong at Rs447 - Pritesh
15:07:04 - book profit in arvind mills short call: Stockticker
15:04:14 - Our BTST call: Buy Cipla at Rs442
14:54:01 - Our BRFL call is at Rs108 - stockticker
14:52:24 - Book profit in our BEML call at Rs1100: Stockticker
14:52:23 - Book profit in our BEML call at Rs1100: Stockticker
14:50:42 - Book partial profit in our Arvind Mills short call: Stockticker
14:44:58 - Our GE Shipping call has acheived the tgt - Deepak
14:44:57 - Our GE Shipping call has acheived the tgt - Deepak
14:32:00 - Sell Rel Capital at Rs432 with SL of 435 and tgt of Rs425 - stockticker
14:26:11 - Market is highly volatile, traders are advised to remain cautious
13:58:14 - BUY IDFC at Rs 72.25 with SL of Rs 71 and tgt expected at Rs 75 - Deepak
13:56:10 - Buy Satyam Comp at Rs732 with SL of Rs726 and tgt of Rs739, 742 - Pritesh
13:44:09 - Our L&T call going strong at Rs1820
13:42:09 - short vsnl at CMP with SL of 384 and tgt of 372 - stockticker
13:29:49 - Buy GIPCL for investment of 4 weeks at Rs 70 with SL of Rs 67 and Expected at Rs 84 in 4 weeks: Deepak
13:26:04 - Buy L&T at CMP with SL of Rs1785 and tgt of Rs1840, 1850
13:22:41 - Gujarat NRE Coke to give 1 share for 1 of FCGL Industries
13:14:15 - Buy essaroil at CMP with sl of 38 and tgt of 43 - Stockticker
13:10:33 - Our HMT call at Rs94.50, book profit - Stockticker
13:06:25 - Our SBI SL Triggered - Pritesh
13:00:10 - Buy hmt at CMP with SL 90 and tgt 95 - Stockticker
12:49:37 - Buy PBA Infra at CMP with SL of Rs92 and tgt of Rs98 - Stockticker
12:44:07 - India Defers Decision to sell stake in Neyveli Lignite
12:44:06 - India Defers Decision to sell stake in Neyveli Lignite
12:36:58 - Our tgt acheived in Unichem Lab - Stockticker
12:32:55 - Buy Unichem Lab at Rs309 with SL of Rs302 and tgt of Rs315 - Stockticker
12:28:43 - high risk trade buy dhampursug cmp 186.5 with a sl of Rs 182 target 194 and 196 - Biren
12:25:10 - Buy BRFL at CMp with SL of Rs92 and tgt of Rs110 in 3 days- Stockticker
12:25:09 - Buy BRFL at CMp with SL of Rs92 and tgt of Rs110 in 3 days- Stockticker
12:15:53 - Buy Matrix Labs at Rs 241.90 with SL of Rs 238 and Tgt of Rs 247+ : Deepak
12:15:52 - Buy Matrix Labs at Rs 241.90 with SL of Rs 238 and Tgt of Rs 247+ : Deepak
12:12:27 - modify dabur sl from 199 to 202 now ie almost cost to cost - Biren
12:11:26 - Buy Tata Tea at Rs 937 with SL of Rs 933 and tgt of Rs 945+ Deepak
12:04:08 - buy dabur cmp 203 with a sl of Rs 199 target 210 and 212 - Biren
11:48:01 - Short SBI at Rs896.40 with SL of Rs903 and tgt of Rs888 - Pritesh
11:41:25 - SELL ARVIND MILLS at CMP WITH SL of Rs96 and tgt of Rs90 - Stockticker
11:41:24 - SELL ARVIND MILLS at CMP WITH SL of Rs96 and tgt of Rs90 - Stockticker
11:35:27 - Our Tgt achieved in GSFC - Biren
11:35:26 - Our Tgt achieved in GSFC - Biren
11:33:11 - Buy Rolta at Rs195 with SL of Rs192 and tgt of Rs202 - Deepak
11:14:17 - SELL TATASTEEL at CMP WITH SL of Rs373 and tgt of Rs365 - Stockticker
11:01:26 - firework in jain irrigation - Biren
11:01:25 - firework in jain irrigation - Biren
10:55:53 - buy jain irrigation cmp 200 with a sl of Rs 195 target 211 and 213 - Biren
10:55:52 - buy jain irrigation cmp 200 with a sl of Rs 195 target 211 and 213 - Biren
10:54:25 - Buy Sterlite Optical for delivery of 2-3 weeks at Rs 96 with SL of Rs 93 and TGT of Rs 101 - 105 : Deepak
10:51:59 - Our BTST call given yesterday of Hexaware has gained by over 3.40% - Biren
10:46:50 - India's cabinet is scheduled to meet at 11 a.m. in New Delhi today, Cabinet may discuss selling a 10 % stake in Neyveli Lignite Corp. through a public offer - Report
10:44:55 - Buy G. E. Shipping at Rs 220.30 with SL of Rs 217 and tgt Epected at Rs 225+ : Deepak
10:40:18 - Our Goldiam delivery call given yesterday has acheived the tgt of Rs100 - Deepak
10:32:05 - Our Tata Motors SL triggered - Deepak
10:27:30 - buy indiaglycom cmp 203.5 with a sl of Rs 199 target 210 and 212 - Biren
10:20:26 - Buy beml at CMP with SL of Rs1065 and tgt of Rs1110 - Stockticker
10:16:20 - Buy rajshreesugar at CMP with SL of Rs98 and tgt of Rs104 -108 : Stockticker
10:16:19 - Buy rajshreesugar at CMP with SL of Rs98 and tgt of Rs104 -108 : Stockticker
10:12:27 - Buy GNFC at Rs102.75 with SL of Rs 100.50 and tgt expected at Rs 106+ : Deepak
10:07:29 - Buy ekc at CMP with SL of Rs 282 and tgt of Rs297 - Stockticker
10:07:28 - Buy ekc at CMP with SL of Rs 282 and tgt of Rs297 - Stockticker
10:00:40 - Buy Tata motors at Rs 645 with SL of Rs 638 and tgt TGT of Rs 655 - Deepak
09:56:30 - Buy JSW Steel at CMP with a SL of Rs212 and tgt of Rs 224,227 - Biren
09:55:45 - Buy GSFC at CMP with a SL of Rs 155 and tgt of Rs165,167 - Biren

Market News from my Broker

15:09:05 - GAIL India's to consider midyear dividend on Jan 12
14:26:13 - Market is highly volatile, traders are advised to remain cautious
13:37:55 - Gujarat NRE Coke to sell Rs5bn worth shares, bonds overseas
13:22:56 - Gujarat NRE Coke to give 1 share for 1 of FCGL Industries
12:44:08 - India Defers Decision to sell stake in Neyveli Lignite
12:26:41 - Hindustan Copper plans to raise prices by 6% in January
12:26:40 - Hindustan Copper plans to raise prices by 6% in January
12:00:59 - Cipla denies reports on supply accord with Boehringer
12:00:58 - Cipla denies reports on supply accord with Boehringer
10:46:49 - India's cabinet is scheduled to meet at 11 a.m. in New Delhi today, Cabinet may discuss selling a 10 % stake in Neyveli Lignite Corp. through a public offer - Report
10:46:48 - India's cabinet is scheduled to meet at 11 a.m. in New Delhi today, Cabinet may discuss selling a 10 % stake in Neyveli Lignite Corp. through a public offer - Report
F&O Calls from My Broker

15:24:05 - Our BTST call: Buy TCS Jan Futures at CMP at Rs1710
15:17:19 - Our BTST call: Buy Nifty January Future
14:26:14 - Market is highly volatile, traders are advised to remain cautious

Buy Paramount with a 2 months target of Rs160 with a SL 128

Stocks to watch

Gufic Bio
NELCO
Goldiam Inter

Calls form high profile Trader

Buy Ankur Drugs for a long term target of 225, 300 with stop loss 159
Buy ICSA India for a long term target of 900, 1400 with stoploss 605
Buy Paramount with a 2 months target of Rs160 with a SL 128

Buy SPANCOTELE IN BSE CMP 172.5 SL BELOW 167 TARGET 190 AND 205 (TWO WEEKS)

My Brokers calls
15:26:11 - Our BTST call
: Buy JSWSteel at Rs216.60 - Biren
15:20:17 - Our BTST call : Buy Mcdowell at CMp of Rs476
15:19:30 - Our BTST call: Buy Hexaware at CMP of Rs129.65 - Biren
14:57:18 - buy for delivery SPANCOTELE IN BSE CMP 172.5 SL BELOW 167 TARGET 190 AND 205 (TWO WEEKS)
14:56:46 - OUR TREVENI ENGINNERING CALL IS TOUCHING Rs87, BOOK PROFIT - Stockticker
14:53:12 - modify cesc sl from 219 to 223 IE cost to cost - Biren
14:51:28 - Buy Treveni Engineering at CMP of Rs83 with SL of Rs79 and tgt of Rs88 - Stockticker
14:40:51 - Our Reliance Capital SL triggered - Stockticker
14:40:50 - Our Reliance Capital SL triggered - Stockticker
14:39:26 - Our Reliance Industries SL triggered - Pritesh
14:31:56 - Buy Samtel col at Rs 76.50 for investment of 3-4 weeks with SL of Rs 72 and tgt expected at Rs 85 - Deepak
14:15:44 - Our Reliance Industries call is going strong at Rs889.70 - Pritesh
14:13:43 - Buy Reliance Industries at 885 with SL of Rs879 and tgt of Rs897 - Pritesh
14:06:57 - Our EKC call is at Rs286, book partial profit - stockticker
13:58:57 - Our JP Associate SL Triigered - Stockticker
13:58:56 - Our JP Associate SL Triigered - Stockticker
13:54:13 - our Bharti Tele SL triggered- stockticker
13:37:25 - Short Bharti Tele at CMP with SL 335 and Tgt of Rs325 - stockticker
13:11:48 - Sell Infosys at CMP with SL of Rs2990 and tgt of Rs2940 - Stockticker
12:57:54 - Sell Reliance Capital with SL of 438 and tgt of Rs425 - stockticker
12:55:57 - Buy EKC at CMp with SL of Rs278 and Tgt of Rs295 - stockticker
12:48:56 - Our srf sl triggered exit - Biren
12:48:16 - Our Tata Steel Sl triggered
12:48:15 - Our Tata Steel Sl triggered
12:42:50 - Buy JP Asoociate at CMp with SL of Rs375 and tgt of Rs385 - Stockticker
12:42:49 - Buy JP Asoociate at CMp with SL of Rs375 and tgt of Rs385 - Stockticker
12:41:34 - Buy Rajshree Sugar for investment of 1 month at CMP of Rs97.50 with SL of Rs95 and tgt expected at Rs115 - Deepak
12:32:50 - Buy Cipla at Rs438 with SL of Rs434 and Tgt of Rs447 - Pritesh
12:23:17 - Buy Jyoti Structure at Rs345 with SL of Rs341 and tgt of Rs352
12:20:31 - buy srf cmp 283 with a sl of Rs 279 target 293 and 295 - biren
11:57:54 - ioc first target completed - Biren
11:56:22 - modify indianoil sl from 553 to 559 now - Biren
11:49:36 - buy cesc cmp 223 with a sl of Rs 219 target 230 and 233 - Biren
11:47:03 - Buy Goldiam at CMP of Rs83.85 for investment of 4 weeks with tgt of Rs100 - Deepak
11:37:48 - buy ioc cmp 558.5 with a sl of Rs 553 target 565 and 568 - Biren
11:36:40 - Our tgt acheived in Titan, book profit - stockticker
11:27:00 - Our Titan call at Rs815, book partial profit in the scrip - stockticker
11:21:43 - Our Matrix Labs SL triggered - Stockticker
11:21:42 - Our Matrix Labs SL triggered - Stockticker
11:20:00 - Our HCL Tech SL triggered, exit - Biren
11:19:59 - Our HCL Tech SL triggered, exit - Biren
11:11:49 - Buy Titan at CMP with SL of Rs795 and tgt of Rs820 - Stockticker
11:00:23 - Sell ONGC at Rs1175 with SL of Rs 1185 and tgt expected at Rs1160- Deepak
11:00:22 - Sell ONGC at Rs1175 with SL of Rs 1185 and tgt expected at Rs1160- Deepak
10:59:24 - Market is looking volatile, traders are advised to remain cautious
10:59:23 - Market is looking volatile, traders are advised to remain cautious
10:57:15 - Our VSNL SL triggered - Deepak
10:51:48 - Buy Tata Steel at CMp with SL of Rs374 and tgt of Rs385
10:50:03 - buy hcltech cmp 528 with a sl of Rs 523 target 536 and 539 - Biren
10:50:02 - buy hcltech cmp 528 with a sl of Rs 523 target 536 and 539 - Biren
10:42:31 - buy apil cmp 206.5. with a sl of Rs 203 target 215 and 217 - Biren
10:41:18 - Our Satyam Call is at Rs732.90, getting close to achieving the tgt
10:39:22 - Our SBI call is at Rs908, book profit partially in the scrip - Pritesh
10:39:21 - Our SBI call is at Rs908, book profit partially in the scrip - Pritesh
10:28:37 - Our SBI call is going strong at Rs906.40 - Pritesh
10:23:25 - Buy SBI at Rs901 with SL of Rs896 and tgt of Rs909 - Pritesh
10:23:24 - Buy SBI at Rs901 with SL of Rs896 and tgt of Rs909 - Pritesh
10:19:03 - Sell VSNL at Rs 377 with SL of Rs 382 and tgt of Rs 372 - Deepak
10:10:31 - Buy 3I Infotech at Rs189 for investment of 2 weeks with tgt of Rs225 - Deepak
10:07:49 - Buy Satyam at CMP with SL of Rs718 and Tgt of Rs735
10:04:41 - Short Escorts at CMP with SL of Rs73 and tgt of Rs68 - Stockticker
10:01:14 - Buy Matrix Labs at CMP with SL of Rs237 and tgt of Rs250 - Stockticker
10:01:13 - Buy Matrix Labs at CMP with SL of Rs237 and tgt of Rs250 - Stockticker
10:01:05 - Buy Matrix Labs at CMP with SL of Rs237 and tgt of Rs250 - Stockticker
09:56:32 - Buy KEC International at CMP with a SL of Rs259 and tgt of Rs 274,277 - Biren
09:56:10 - Buy HPCL at CMP with a SL of Rs315 and tgt of Rs 327,329 - Biren
09:56:09 - Buy HPCL at CMP with a SL of Rs315 and tgt of Rs 327,329 - Biren

Market News from my Broker

14:45:57 - REL board to meet on Jan 3 on Merger plans
12:46:31 - Ashapura Minechem Board to consider splitting stock on Januray 30
12:34:41 - Man Industries wins order for coated line pipes worth Rs1.63bn from Gail
12:34:40 - Man Industries wins order for coated line pipes worth Rs1.63bn from Gail
11:51:06 - Patel Enginnering plans to raise $125mn to fund expansion
10:59:26 - Market is looking volatile, traders are advised to remain cautious

Buy ICSA India for a medium term target of Rs 900


28.12.2005

Stocks to watch

3i Infotech
India Cements
Amar Remedies

High Profile Traders Calls

Buy Ankur Drugs for a medium term target of Rs 225
Buy ICSA India for a medium term target of Rs 900
Buy Micro Technologies above Rs320 for a target of Rs.355 with a stop loss Rs Rs 308




Buy Chambal Fertllizers at CMP for investment of 2 weeks with tgt of Rs42

Calls from my Broker
15:21:41 - Our BTST call: Buy HPCL at CMP of Rs319 - Biren
15:19:08 - Book profit in Triveni Enginerring at Rs81 - stockticker
15:17:29 - Buy Triveni Enginerring at CMP with SL of 77 and Tgt of 82 - stockticker
15:10:04 - Buy Chambal Fertllizers at CMP for investment of 2 weeks with tgt of Rs42 - Deepak
15:10:03 - Buy Chambal Fertllizers at CMP for investment of 2 weeks with tgt of Rs42 - Deepak
15:06:45 - Our Rel capital close to acheiving the tgt
15:03:15 - Our Tgt acheived in TCS call - Pritesh
14:55:07 - modify hcl insys sl from 262 to 265 now : Biren
14:53:51 - Book Profit in Arvind mills Short call and exit - Stockticker
14:52:37 - Our TCS call is at Rs1698.35, book profit partially in the scrip - Pritesh
14:52:22 - Our TCS call is at Rs16978.35, book profit partially in the scrip - Pritesh
14:52:21 - Our TCS call is at Rs16978.35, book profit partially in the scrip - Pritesh
14:35:29 - kec intl on target 1- Biren
14:32:50 - Buy Polaris at Rs 127 with SL of Rs 123 and TGT of Rs133+ : Deepak
14:31:33 - Buy Matrix at Rs 239.50 with SL of RS 236 and tgt of Rs245+ : Deepak
14:28:03 - Correction: Buy Essar Oil at CMp with SL 38 and Tgt of Rs45
14:27:30 - Buy Essar Oil at CMp with SL 38 and Tgt of Rs41
14:19:56 - Our Tgt achieved in Rel Energy : Deepak
14:19:55 - Our Tgt achieved in Rel Energy : Deepak
14:00:36 - Our TCS call going strong at Rs1694.80 - Pritesh
13:57:47 - buy hcl insys cmp 266 with a sl of rs 262 target 273 and 276 - Biren
13:56:39 - Short Arvind mills at CMP with SL of 103 and tgt of 96 - Stockticker
13:43:23 - Buy kcpsugar cmp 493 with a sl of Rs 488 target 503 and 506 - Biren
13:41:21 - Buy Escorts at CMp with SL of Rs69 and tgt of 76, 77 - Deepak
13:37:59 - Book profit in Rajshree Sugar - Stockticker
13:34:41 - Buy Bajaj Auto at CMP with SL 2013 and Tgt of Rs2100 - Deepak
13:33:50 - book profit partially in Rajshree Sugar
13:33:49 - book profit partially in Rajshree Sugar
13:25:52 - Buy Rajshree Sugar at Rs92 with SL of 91 and of tgt 96
13:25:51 - Buy Rajshree Sugar at Rs92 with SL of 91 and of tgt 96
13:16:27 - Our Tata Motors call is in 4th gear
13:13:19 - Our tgt acheived in Tata Motors- Deepak
13:07:57 - Our TCS call is going strong at Rs1688 - Pritesh
12:52:54 - Buy TCS at Rs1684 with SL of Rs1670 and Tgt of Rs1700 - Pritesh
12:51:17 - Buy wipro at Rs 460 with SL of Rs 455 and tgt expected at Rs 470+ : Deepak
12:38:41 - buy kecintl cmp 259.6 with a sl of Rs 254 target 267 and 269 - Biren
12:38:21 - buy kecintl cmp 259.6 with a sl of Rs 254 target 267 and 269
12:37:50 - Our tgt achieved in Dwarkesh sugar - Biren
12:33:53 - Buy Maruti at Rs 627.70 with SL of Rs 623 and tgt of Rs 632- Deepak
12:33:00 - buy archies cmp 183 sl 179 target 189 and 191 - Biren
12:32:59 - buy archies cmp 183 sl 179 target 189 and 191 - Biren
12:27:13 - Buy Suzlon for delivery of 2 days at Rs 880 with SL of Rs 860 and tgt of Rs 900 - Deepak
12:11:23 - Buy Repro India at Rs 221 with SL of Rs 216 and tgt exepcted at Rs 230+ : Deepak
12:11:22 - Buy Repro India at Rs 221 with SL of Rs 216 and tgt exepcted at Rs 230+ : Deepak
12:04:10 - Buy Provogue at Rs204 with SL of Rs 199 and Tgt of Rs 214 - Deepak
12:02:44 - Buy Mid - Day at Rs91 with SL of Rs88 and Tgt of Rs95 - Pritesh
11:54:13 - Buy Tata Chemical at Rs227 with SL of Rs 225 and tgt expected to Rs 232+ : Deepak
11:54:12 - Buy Tata Chemical at Rs227 with SL of Rs 225 and tgt expected to Rs 232+ : Deepak
11:49:55 - Buy Amar Remedies at CMP for delivery of 2 weeks with Tgt of Rs65 - Deepak
11:39:40 - Our delivery call of 3i Infotech given on 5th December has acheived the tgt
11:13:00 - Our Rel Energy call is at Rs591, close to acheiving the tgt - Deepak
11:12:59 - Our Rel Energy call is at Rs591, close to acheiving the tgt - Deepak
11:06:35 - Our tgt acheived in SBI call - Pritesh
10:56:56 - Buy Balram Chini CMP 109.50 with SL of 106 and tgt of Rs116, 118 - Biren
10:54:43 - Bharat Earth Movers to consider mid-year dividend on Jan 7
10:46:16 - Buy Rel capital at Rs431 with SL of Rs424 and tgt of Rs442
10:43:13 - Buy Jain Irrigation at Rs193.50 with SL of Rs189 and TGt of Rs199 - Biren
10:36:51 - Our SBI call going strong at Rs882.25, close to achieving the tgt - Pritesh
10:28:08 - Buy SBI at Rs877 with SL of Rs872 and tgt of Rs883 - Pritesh
10:28:07 - Buy SBI at Rs877 with SL of Rs872 and tgt of Rs883 - Pritesh
10:18:58 - Buy Federal Bank at CMP with SL of Rs170 and tgt of Rs179+ : Deepak
10:18:57 - Buy Federal Bank at CMP with SL of Rs170 and tgt of Rs179+ : Deepak
10:17:54 - Buy dwarkesh cmp 217.55 with a sl of Rs 212 target 224 227 - Biren
10:15:56 - Our M&M call bang on tgt, book profit in the scrip - Pritesh
10:14:53 - Buy Tata Motors at CMP with SL of Rs644 and Tgt of Rs658 - Deepak
10:12:41 - Buy Rel Energy at Rs581.50 with SL of Rs 580 and Tgt of Rs592 - Deepak
10:09:21 - Buy M&M at Rs479 with SL of Rs 472 and TGt of Rs486 - Pritesh
10:09:20 - Buy M&M at Rs479 with SL of Rs 472 and TGt of Rs486 - Pritesh
09:56:23 - Buy GTC Ind at CMP with a SL of Rs 113 and tgt at Rs126,128 - Biren
Market News from my Broker

4:38:54 - Arvind mills Mkt wide limit hits 96%. No new positions allowed
14:17:30 - Thermax says court approves absorption of 2 units
14:15:57 - IOB approves sale of bonds to boost capital
11:56:21 - India says 70 companies qualify for FM radio Licenses, India FM qualifiers include Adlabs, HT Music and Radio Today
10:54:38 - Bharat Earth Movers to consider mid-year dividend on Jan 7
09:55:51 - Matrix to sign supply accords with 2 generic drugmakers in US

Buy Allsec tech for a target of Rs325

27.12.2005
My Brokers call

10:18:58 - Buy Federal Bank at CMP with SL of Rs170 and tgt of Rs179+ : Deepak
10:18:57 - Buy Federal Bank at CMP with SL of Rs170 and tgt of Rs179+ : Deepak
10:17:54 - Buy dwarkesh cmp 217.55 with a sl of Rs 212 target 224 227 - Biren
10:15:56 - Our M&M call bang on tgt, book profit in the scrip - Pritesh
10:14:53 - Buy Tata Motors at CMP with SL of Rs644 and Tgt of Rs658 - Deepak
10:12:41 - Buy Rel Energy at Rs581.50 with SL of Rs 580 and Tgt of Rs592 - Deepak
10:09:21 - Buy M&M at Rs479 with SL of Rs 472 and TGt of Rs486 - Pritesh
10:09:20 - Buy M&M at Rs479 with SL of Rs 472 and TGt of Rs486 - Pritesh
09:56:23 - Buy GTC Ind at CMP with a SL of Rs 113 and tgt at Rs126,128 - Biren
Buy Godrej Ind for a target of Rs500
Buy Allsec tech for a target of Rs325

BuyTodaySellTomorrow call: Buy Voltas at CMP of Rs615

Calls from my Broker
Our BTST call: Buy Voltas at CMP of Rs615
15:08:05 - Our Tgt acheived in Tata Motors, book profit in the scrip - Pritesh
15:04:28 - Our tgt acheived in ONGC, book parofit partially in the scrip
15:03:27 - Our ONGC and Tata motors call going strong in weak market, ONGC close to acheiving the tgt
15:03:26 - Our ONGC and Tata motors call going strong in weak market, ONGC close to acheiving the tgt
14:57:40 - Our Tata Motors call at Rs636, book profit partially in the scrip - Pritesh
14:37:48 - Sell SBI at Rs 869 with SL of Rs 877 and Tgt of Rs856 - Deepak
14:04:20 - Our tata Motors call going strong at Rs633.40 in a weak market - Pritesh
13:57:54 - Buy Tata Motors at Rs631 with SL of Rs626 and Tgt of Rs639 - Pritesh
13:37:39 - Our Tisco SL triggered, exit - Deepak
13:24:56 - Sell Dabur at Rs 196 with SL of Rs 201 and tgt expected at Rs190 - Deepak
13:20:49 - Sell SRF at Rs 276 sell with SL of Rs282 and tgt of Rs265 - Deepak
13:17:25 - Our Satyam short call bang on Tgt - Pritesh
13:11:48 - Our I-Flex SL triggered, exit
13:04:27 - Our Titan SL triggered, exit
12:51:48 - High risky traders buy ONGC at Rs1178 with a strict SL of Rs1170 and Tgt of Rs1190
12:40:29 - Our SL triggered in Visualsoft, exit - Biren
12:40:28 - Our SL triggered in Visualsoft, exit - Biren
12:28:08 - High risky traders buy i-Flex at Rs1030 with a strict SL of Rs1024 and Tgt of Rs1040
12:18:08 - Our Satyam short call is at Rs696.50, book profit in the scrip - pritesh
12:04:32 - Buy Titan at Rs781with SL of Rs772 and Tgt of Rs797
11:47:04 - Sell oudh sugar cmp 110.65 with a sl of Rs 113.5 target 104 and 102 - Biren
11:36:23 - Buy Tisco at Rs370.40 with SL of Rs366 and tgt expected at Rs375: Deepak
11:28:28 - Sell visualsoft cmp 246.5 with a sl of rs 250 target 240 and 236 - Biren
11:13:19 - Our Satyam short Call is going strong at Rs698.55, book profit partially in the scrip - Pritesh
11:02:07 - Modify Satyam SL to Rs709 - Pritesh
10:58:23 - High risky traders short Satyam at Rs704 with a strict SL of Rs711 and Tgt of Rs695 - Pritesh
10:48:24 - High risky traders Buy Reliance Industries at CMP with SL of Rs825 and Tgt of Rs840
10:40:40 - Our tgt acheived in Infosys call, book profit partially in the scrip
10:39:19 - Our Infosys call is going strong at Rs2986 in a weak market
10:14:56 - High risky traders buy Infosys at CMp with a strict SL of Rs2959 and Tgt of Rs2987
09:55:50 - Buy Bharti Ship at CMP with a SL of Rs 322 and Tgt of Rs337,340 – Biren

Market News from my Broker

- Sundaram Fasteners will buy Germany's Textron unit
- SBI raises $100mn selling bonds overseas
- ICSA India to supply transmission lines, wins orders worth $140mn from Sudan
- Wockhardt gets aproval to sell Zonisamide capsules in US
- Glenmark buys Bower Bartlett of South Africa
- GIC Housing Finance Board approves 1 rights share for every held
Ultratech Cement board approves absorbing Narmada Cement
12:02:15 - Alps Industries secures export order for natural dyed yarn from Sri Lanka worth Rs92mn
India to sell stakes in RCF, National Fertilizers - Reports
L&T has bagged an order worth Rs4.11bn
GHCL to buy US Textile company

Seven Steps to Happy Investment

( This is one of the best advice I have received - R. J. C)
By Dhirendra Kumar


Once again, Indian investors are in a manic-depressive mood. They undergo bouts of wild joy when they see where the markets are heading and how the value of their investments has increased. At the same time, they are sick with worry about whether they should stay invested and whether they should invest more.The stock markets have reached higher than they have ever done before. This is a good thing for investors but is also a dangerous one. Remember, more bad investment decisions are made when the markets are at a high than at any other time. All-time highs may be exciting, but all savvy investors know that at times like these one's thoughts should be on what not to do rather than on what to do.We know it's difficult to control one's excitement, but this is the right time to get back to basics and reaffirm one's knowledge and faith in the basics of investing. Here are some simple rules and principles that will ensure that you can prevent yourself from making the worse mistakes that the stratospheric heights of the stock markets can induce.
1. It isn't different this time, not reallyEvery bull run brings out the chronic optimist in investors. This time, we feel, things have changed fundamentally and the markets will go on rising up for a long time. Sure, we feel, they may pause a bit, but surely they won't fall ever again. Every great bull run that the Indian markets have seen in living memory has come complete with a set of reasons 'proving' why it was different this time.In 1992-1993, we were told that liberalisation had fundamentally changed India and the markets were transitioning to a totally different level and the old rules no longer applied. A couple of years later, during the IPO-inspired boom, investors felt that the abolition of capital controls had resulted in money flowing into the markets on a new scale that would change the rules of the game forever. In the tech boom that got going in 1999, we were convinced that information technology and the Internet would forever change the rules of doing business and investing.In 2004, we were being told that India's hour of global competitiveness has arrived and that henceforth, old assumptions and rules about the value of Indian business do not apply.On each one of these occasions (except 2004), there was eventually a painful reminder that the rules had not really changed and if the markets' rise and eventual fall were demonstrations to this effect. Interestingly, none of the basic premises on which these bull runs were justified were really wrong. Liberalisation did transform the Indian economy, as did vigorous public participation in IPOs. The IT industry's crucial role in the Indian economy is unchallengeable, as is the new global confidence of Indian businesses and economy.In each case, the problem lay not in the basic cause but in the euphoria generated by the it's-different-this-time propaganda.
2. Bulls are no substitute for knowledge & understandingAs the stock markets rise, most people appear to need fewer and fewer justifications for investing. A couple of years ago, when the markets were down in the dumps, hardly anyone would make an investment without putting it under a magnifying glass.When the markets started rising, the focus seems to have shifted to what one may call faith-based investing. Investors have faith in the general talk of how the markets will keep on rising and therefore find almost any investment worth making, regardless of how little they know about it. The feeling is that the markets will go on rising and therefore all stocks are worth investing in.This zero-knowledge investing is a recipe for disaster. Since investors get into a stock or a sector without knowing why they are there, they cannot figure out when to get out and even how to figure out whether its time to get out.The rash of sector funds that have been launched lately means that even fund investors-who would normally be immune to ignorant investing-are prone to investing without understanding. Fund investors with perfectly well-balanced portfolios are going around putting money in sector funds without figuring out their own pre-existing exposure to those sectors.Our advise is simple--do not invest in stocks, sectors and funds that you do not understand. And if you do not have the time or the inclination to understand anything specific, stick to a handful of mainstream diversified and balanced funds.
3. You can't have it all'Buy low, sell high', goes the oldest mantra of the markets. Yet investors do their returns much damage by trying to 'Buy lowest, sell highest'. No matter how much you try, it isn't possible to time the markets with a reasonable degree of accuracy. If you insist on waiting to realise all possible gains by selling at the very highest point, you are likely to miss it altogether.If you want to make money with a reasonable certainty, don't mind leaving some of it at the top of a price peak. If you've made reasonable gains, get out without agonising over unmade gains--you won't lose anything.
4. It doesn't matter whether the Sensex makes senseOne question that most financial media is obsessing over is whether fundamentals justify the levels to which the markets have risen? Clearly, the answer to a question like this is expected to have a certain predictive value. Implicit in the very act of asking such a question is the idea that if the markets' level is justifiable, then it will be sustainable and if it is not justifiable, then this level will not be sustainable. This is something that we do not believe in. Therefore, if we observe that the fundamentals justify current market levels, by no stretch of the imagination can that be construed as saying that the Sensex is going to go up to X,000 level (for your choice of X) or even stay at the current 9,000 level. Markets rise and fall for many reasons and fundamentals are only one of those. They are perfectly capable of dropping way below levels that are justified by fundamentals.Fears that the market levels may not be justified by the fundamentals are based on the fact that the BSE Sensex is at its all time high. Historically, the stock markets have always fallen rather sharply soon after registering such levels. While this is numerically true, increasing profits and thus falling valuations make a 9,000 today a very different thing compared to peak levels that the index has recorded in the past.In February 2000, when the tech-inspired bull-run was about to be stopped cold by the Ketan Parekh scam, the weighted average P/E ratio of the Sensex companies was around 26. At the time, the Sensex was at 5,924 points. In January 2004, when the Sensex reached its all-time high, its weighted average P/E was around 20. Now, the P/E is around 17.But P/E ratios, and those too only of the Sensex, are hardly the whole story. There are many other factors that point to a solid base for the current market levels. In contrast to 2000, today's market is incredibly broad-based. Then, it was the technology sector (fuelled partly by the dotcom hysteria), that was skewing the averages upwards. Today, there are happy stories across most industries including some very unlikely ones. Most importantly, there is no longer any doubt about the global competitiveness of Indian companies.It goes without saying that there are many clouds on the horizon. Oil prices, the slow-motion collapse of the US Dollar, rising inflation and interest rates could all dampen things. Of course, 'the fundamentals of the market' are a bit of a red herring. As every investor (and even some day traders) know, there is no such thing as the fundamentals of the market. Sure, we have seen averages of the valuations of the companies that make up the indices and they do paint a happy picture but these are measures whose use is mostly to decorate newspaper articles and Powerpoint slides. To real investors, even the index is of only marginal interest and what matters are only the numbers behind the stocks they are holding. The average P/E of the Sensex is thus of very little comfort to someone who has a portfolio full of HLL stock.The worst danger of high stock prices is not in the prices themselves but in the irrational optimism that they start engendering after a point. Just about any market level is fine as long as investors keep a cool head and don't think of investing only when the market is rising.
5. Beware of the hype machineAll financial media: the pink newspapers, the business channels on TV and the business magazines see their business improve when the markets go up.Now, we at Value Research try to be an exception but the fact is the entire financial media is a massive hype machine that is predisposed to being optimistic. Good news sells, bad news doesn't. For example, major business channels and pink newspapers go into wild celebrations every time the Sensex crosses a round figure like 5,000 or 6,000. The newspapers have giant decorated headlines and the business channels have breathless newsreaders screaming at the top of their voice.The media does all this because its good business but it does create an atmosphere of frenzy that drives people to invest NOW! The feeling that if one will miss a lifetime's opportunity by not investing immediately takes over and that leads to bad investing decisions.Investors need to guard against getting too involved by the media hype. We are not asking you to stop watching TV or reading newspapers but try and concentrate on movies, music, cricket and other useful things in the media-reading or viewing a news story about the Sensex does nothing for you as an investor.
6. Value mattersWhen the markets are rising, its easy to forget about whether the stocks you are getting into are good value at the price you are paying. There are plenty of good stocks that are just too overpriced at a point like this.As someone observed recently, brokers appear to be hawking many more buys when the Sensex is at 9,000 than when it was at 5,000. This doesn't sound like rational investing. Surely, if one is evaluating a bunch of companies as potential investments, there would at least be some that would be worth investing at lower prices but not at current ones.It doesn't sound likely that the number of worthwhile investments would actually rise when the markets rise, yet if one is to look at the 'research' that is being churned out, there are more 'buys' now than earlier. Clearly, researchers and investors have stopped looking at whether some investments are justifiable at current prices.
7. Did you do it, or did the market?One of the strangest things that happen in a broad rally is how every investor gets convinced that it is his genius that is delivering gains and not the market. We have a situation where almost every stock and fund is rising sharply. Over the last couple of years, practically all that has been necessary to get good returns is to just invest.In this situation, there is a temptation for investors to look at their portfolio, see how everything is gaining and convince themselves of their own investing genius. As a bull-run goes on, this emotion keeps getting stronger at an ever-faster rate. By the time the markets reach a seriously high point, there is a large mass of investors who have fully convinced themselves that they are invincible. Convinced that whatever they touch will turn to gold, they start going around touching things randomly.If the rally still has some steam left, this seems to work for a while. Typically, investors with this attitude go around looking for stocks that have not yet risen but are 'about to rise'. Late in a rally, these are, almost by definition, dud stocks. If the rally continues and someone is actively plugging a stock then this seems to work for a while. Eventually, either the stock or the rally runs out of steam and the investor is left holding a stock that has fallen disastrously. Some such stocks may actually be worth nothing since they are too illiquid to sell.In a strong bull-run, investors must keep both feet on the ground by continuously comparing the investing performance of their entire portfolio (and not just one or two stocks) with some external benchmark. This will keep things in perspective.

Human Nature By Charlie Wright


By Charlie Wright

I always tell traders who are having difficulties that to trade well you have to trade against your human nature. You must buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone else is buying. If you think about it, the market is simply the sum total of all actions made by millions of human decisions. These decisions reflect human nature. Researchers have found that 95% of all traders lose money. If we accept this to be true, then almost all of those millions of decisions will ultimately be wrong. As these decisions move the market, the market reflects human nature, and if 95% of the traders are losing money, it is clear that to make money you cannot trade like everyone else. If everyone else is trading as human nature demands they must, to be successful you have to trade against human nature, your human nature. The most profitable trades I make usually feel like losers when I put them on. Taking these trades always goes against my human nature. For instance, many years ago I used to day-trade the S&P futures. On one particular day I had suffered a string of six losing trades in a row and had experienced a drawdown in excess of $11,000. This was an extremely difficult day and I was ready to quit when with 45 minutes to go in the day I got another signal. What I really wanted to do was to throw my computer out the window and go home. There was no reason to put on another losing trade. Why throw more money after bad? I was not a masochist! The market was choppy all day and I surely was not going to make any money on another useless trade. At this point however, I decided that if I did nothing else for the day, at least I would take all of the trades my strategy gave me. If the strategy lost money, then I would have to change the strategy, but I never wanted to say that I did not have enough discipline and stamina to implement the strategy I had developed, even though my instincts told me this next trade would be financially stupid. So I took the trade, and vowed to take every subsequent trade until the market closed. I was not going to follow my inclination and quit. I would assess the strategy after the markets closed, not during market hours. During market hours, my only job was to implement the trades. Well, the market exploded into one of those end-of-the-day moves that lasted until the closing bell. Not only did I made back all of the day's losses, I ended up with an $8,000 profit for the day! Many people were trading the trend this particular day. Trend traders had built up large losses in a very choppy market and most of us simply gave up. Just when we were ready to give up, the market moved. Those who gave up missed the big move. The human thing to do, the financially conservative thing to do was to quit and preserve money for another day. The people that made money traded against their human nature and stuck it out. It was a very difficult thing to do, but I learned a great lesson on that day.Charlie Wright
Detach Emotions from Your Trading
A successful trader has a well thought out strategy and possesses the self-discipline and self-knowledge to stick to his plan. He knows his abilities and limitations. He knows exactly how he will react to the market. He analyzes the market, doesn't take short cuts, is aware of his reactions, and makes a sound plan. This emotional control is greatly helped by the use of a trading system.
Develop Confidence
A system helps to take away that decision-making hesitancy that traders often face. By trading trend following techniques you can see quickly the results of sound strategy.
Relax (well just a little at least)
Trend Following has profited over decades. Knowing the prior success of the great traders can allow a sense of confidence as you approach the markets.

Fert and Chem still has some steam left

26.12.2005

Stocks that are expected to rise in Short Term

MSK Projects
Vijaya Bank
Fert and Chem ( Fertilizer companies may get Rs.1000 crores subsidy )
Ugar Sugar Work
Bombay Rayon
Rajshree Sugars
High Profile Trader’s calls

Buy Hidustan Constructions for a target of Rs150
Buy Patel Eng. For a target of Rs.370
Buy Amtek India for a short term target of Rs 130
Buy Ankur drugs for a medium term target of Rs 225

Short Term : Between 3 days to 3 weeks
Intermediate Term : Above 3 weeks to 3 months
Medium Term : 3 months to 9 months
Long Term : Anything above 9 months

For Disclaimer read here

Disclaimer - A must Read

Dear Friends,
Thank you very much for your encouraging comments on this Blog. Kindly remember that I prepare the information and views presented in this Blog from different sources both publicly and privately available. The information contained herein is based on my analysis and upon sources that I consider reliable. I, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this Blog may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither me nor invest-care nor any person connected with any associate of invest-care accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned in this Blog. The author, directors and other employees of invest-care and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the companies discussed here from time to time. This Blog is intended for a restricted audience and we are not soliciting any action based on it. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities, or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities.
The views expressed here are of my own except where otherwise stated. They have no relationship with my past, present or future employers. This is my personal Blog (Freedom of Expression guaranteed to Citizens of India under Constitution of India) , which means the author has no liability what so ever, for the information presented here.

Five common pitfalls to avoid


Michael J. Mauboussin offers great advice to avoid the dreaded market despair:

Knowing yourself means understanding how you’re likely to behave under various circumstances. Over the past couple of decades, behavioral finance researchers have developed a clearer understanding of the psychological traps investors fall in. The best way for you to avoid these traps is to become aware of them, the forms they take, and which you are most likely to fall into.
Here are five common pitfalls:
1. Over-confidence. Researchers have found that people consistently overrate their abilities, knowledge, and skill—especially in areas outside of their expertise. Investors must seek and weigh qualityfeedback and stay within their circle of competence.
2. Anchoring and adjusting. In considering a decision, we often give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive, hence anchoring our subsequent thoughts. You can mitigate this risk by seeking information from a variety of sources and viewing various perspectives.
3. Improper framing. The decisions of investors are affected by how a problem, or set of circumstances, is presented. Even the same problem framed in different, and objectively equal, ways can cause people to make different choices. Framing, too, plays a central role in assessing probabilities.
4. Irrational escalation of a commitment. Investors tend to make choices that justify past decisions, even when circumstances change. To avoid this trap, investors must only consider future costs and benefits.
5. Confirmation trap. Investors tend to seek out information that supports their existing point of view while avoiding information that contradicts their opinion. Psychologist Thane Pittman’s slip of tongue sums it up: “I’ll see it when I believe it.”
You must also understand how you tend to react under stress. People with different personality profiles behave in dissimilar ways when stressed. Here again, self-awareness and some basic techniques to offset suboptimal behavior go a long way. Pearson declares, “A gambler’s ace is his ability to think clearly under stress. That’s very important, because, you see, fear is the basis of all mankind....That’s life. Everything’s mental in life.”

My Brokers calls at 2.26 PM

13:24:49 - Sell M&M at CMP with SL of Rs505 and Tgt of Rs488 - Deepak
13:10:56 - buy orientbank cmp 257.5 with a sl of Rs 253 target 264 and 266 - Biren
12:42:34 - FIRE WORK IN DWARKESH CLOSE TO TARGET - Biren
12:32:24 - BUY DWARKESH CMP 229. WITH A SL OF RS 225 TARGET 239,241 - Biren
12:24:29 - Buy Orchid Chemical at Rs 243.50 with SL of Rs 239 and tgt expected at Rs 250, 255 - Deepak
12:10:56 - Our BRFL call is at Rs89.70 close to acheiving the tgt, book profit partially in the scrip
12:09:48 - Correction: Roche grants Tamiflu Sub-Licence to Hetero Drugs
12:09:02 - Roche grants Tamiflu Sub-Licence to Heter Drugs
12:06:12 - Our BRFL call is going strong at Rs88.25
11:47:53 - Our Infosys SL triggered - Deepak
11:45:40 - Market is turning volatile; traders are advised to remain cautious
11:43:36 - Buy BRFL at 86.80 with SL of Rs83 and Tgt of Rs92
11:32:23 - high rirsk buy bharti ship cmp 322. with a sl of Rs 318 target 332 and 335 - Biren
11:20:01 - Our ACC SL Triggered - Deepak
11:07:23 - Buy Prithvi at Rs357 with SL of Rs352 and Tgt of Rs367
11:04:52 - Wipro has gained by over 1.60% to Rs470 after the company bought US based Mpower for $28mn
11:03:58 - Buy SRf at Rs 281.25 with SL of R s275 and tgt expect Rs 286+ Deepak
11:03:57 - Buy SRf at Rs 281.25 with SL of R s275 and tgt expect Rs 286+ Deepak
10:39:15 - Our BTST call of GTC Industries given Yesterday is up by over 3% - Biren
10:22:25 - modify optocircuit sl from 249 to 252 now - Biren
10:22:24 - modify optocircuit sl from 249 to 252 now - Biren
10:21:35 - Buy ACC at Rs554.30 with SL of Rs 550 and tgt expected at Rs 560 - Deepak
10:15:50 - high risk trade buy optocircuit cmp 254.5 with a sl of Rs 249 target 264 and 266 - Biren
10:04:37 - Our BTST call of Wipro given Yesterday is up by 1.30% to Rs469, book profit in the scrip
10:01:02 - Our BTST call of Repro India given Yesterday is up by 4% to Rs244.80, book profit in the scrip
09:59:53 - Buy Tata Motors at CMp with SL of Rs636 and Tgt of Rs648 - Pritesh
09:56:22 - Buy Tata Steel at CMP with SL of Rs 377 and tgt of Rs 389, 391 - Biren
09:56:02 - Buy Dalmia Cem at CMP with a SL of Rs 182 and tgt of Rs196,199 - Biren

Basic money management issues adopted from Michael R. Bryant

"There are many different ways to vary the number of contracts or shares when trading. Some of the most commonly used methods, plus one variation on the fixed ratio method, are listed below:
1. Fixed number of Shares. The same number of contracts or shares is applied to each trade; e.g.,100 or 50 shares per trade( or) 100 or 50 shares per company
2. Fixed amount per contract/company. A fixed amount of account equity is needed for each contract or share; e.g., Rs.10000 for one company
3. Fixed fractional (also known as fixed risk). The number of contracts or shares is determined so that each trade risks a specified fraction of the account equity; e.g., 2% of account equity is risked on each trade.
4. Generalized ratio. This is a generalized form of fixed ratio, which includes an optional parameter to change the rate of increase in the number of contracts or shares with increasing profits."

Buy GIC HOUSING FINANCE for short term target of Rs.56 with stop loss of Rs.47

High profile Trader’s Calls

Buy GIC HOUSING FINANCE for short term target of Rs.56 with stop loss of Rs.47
Buy BIRLAKENNAMETAL for a price target of Rs.180 with a stop loss of Rs123

Stocks to watch

REPRO INDIA
AMAR REMEDIES
Kirloskar Ferro
Provogue

My Brokers calls

15:17:13 - AT LAST OUR PROVOUGUE CALL ON FIRE- Biren
15:17:12 - AT LAST OUR PROVOUGUE CALL ON FIRE- Biren
15:15:42 - REVERSE REL CAPITAL COST TO COST - Biren
15:13:51 - Our BTST Call: Buy Repro India at CMp of Rs234
14:41:24 - Our JP Associate call given in the morning is at Rs404, up by over 9%
14:38:56 - Our ACC SL triggered - Deepak
14:17:58 - Buy Tata Steel at CMP with SL of Rs376 and Tgt of Rs388 - Deepak
14:12:32 - Buy Prithvi at Rs 350 with SL of Rs 344 and tgt of Rs 360+ : Deepak
14:12:31 - Buy Prithvi at Rs 350 with SL of Rs 344 and tgt of Rs 360+ : Deepak
13:36:33 - Sell relcapital cmp 459 with a sl of Rs 464 target 450 and 448 - Biren
12:25:14 - Our SBI SL Triggered
12:24:46 - Our SL Triggered in M&M - Biren
12:20:52 - Buy Allahabad Bank at Rs 83.80 with SL of Rs 82 and tgt of Rs 87 - Deepak
12:20:02 - Market is very volatile. Traders are advised to apply caution
12:18:17 - Our Infosys SL triggered - Pritesh
11:39:01 - Our ONGC call going strong at Rs1190, book profit partially in the scrip - Pritesh
11:34:01 - modify provouge sl from 185 to 190 trade in favour - Biren
11:31:36 - Our Satyam SL triggered - Deepak
11:27:24 - Our second tgt achieved in JP Associate - Biren
11:18:38 - buy cesc cmp 230 with a sl of Rs 225 target 239 and 241 - Biren
11:12:50 - Buy BILT at CMP with SL of Rs 108, and tgt of Rs 117 - Deepak
11:12:49 - Buy BILT at CMP with SL of Rs 108, and tgt of Rs 117 - Deepak
11:08:27 - Buy MTNL at Rs 146.30 with Sl of Rs 144 and tgt of RS 148.50+ : Deepak
11:02:06 - Buy Infosys at CMP with SL of Rs2990 and Tgt of Rs3013 - Pritesh
10:58:10 - Buy Essar Oil for delivery of 1 week at Rs 38.85 with SL of Rs37 and TGT of Rs 43 - Deepak
10:56:07 - Buy Indus Ind Bank for delivery of 1 week at Rs 61.55 with SL of Rs 60 and tgt Expected at Rs 65 - Deepak
10:42:38 - Sell ACC at Rs 544 with SL of Rs 548 and tgt at Rs 538 - Deepak
10:42:37 - Sell ACC at Rs 544 with SL of Rs 548 and tgt at Rs 538 - Deepak
10:41:25 - Our first tgt acheived in JP associate - Biren
10:41:24 - Our first tgt acheived in JP associate - Biren
10:37:18 - Buy ONGC at cmp with SL of Rs1178 and tgt of Rs1191 - Pritesh
10:36:30 - buy provouge cmp 189 with a sl of Rs 185 target 197 and 199 - Biren
10:34:37 - buy mah&mah cmp 507.85 with a sl of rs 502 target 516 and 518 - Biren
10:34:36 - buy mah&mah cmp 507.85 with a sl of rs 502 target 516 and 518 - Biren
10:34:09 - Buy NDTV at Rs 219 with SL of Rs 215 and tgt expected at Rs 225+ : Deepak
10:25:09 - Sell Satyam at Rs 716 with SL of Rs 720 and tgt of Rs712 or below: Deepak
10:19:42 - Sell ICICI bank at Rs 575 with SL of Rs580 and Tgt of Rs570 or below : Deepak
10:08:29 - Buy Mcdowell at CMp of Rs477 with SL of Rs471 and Tgt of Rs486
10:03:10 - Buy Dabur at Rs 198.75 with SL of Rs196 and tgt of Rs 203+ : Deepak
10:03:09 - Buy Dabur at Rs 198.75 with SL of Rs196 and tgt of Rs 203+ : Deepak
10:01:17 - High risky trader buy SBI at cmp with SL of Rs909 and Tgt of Rs923
09:56:30 - Buy JP Associat at CMP with SL of Rs362 and tgt of Rs 374, 378 - Biren
09:55:54 - Buy Voltas at CMP with a SL of Rs603 and tgt of Rs622, 628 - Biren

Buy GKW for short term target of Rs 47.80


Buy GKW for short term target of Rs 47.80
Buy GKW with a short term target price of Rs 47.80 keeping a stoploss at Rs 40. Its medium term target would be Rs 75. On achieving short term target increase stoploss to Rs 42 and continue to hold till Rs 75.

Buy Orient Paper for short term target of Rs 290
Buy Orient Paper with a short term target price of Rs 290 keeping a stoploss at Rs 217. Its medium term target would be Rs 325. On achieving short term target increase stoploss to Rs 260 and continue to hold till Rs 325.

Hold Gati Corporation for target of Rs 520
Hold Gati Corporation for target price of Rs 520. One must keep a stoploss of Rs 390 in it.

Buy Matrix Labs below Rs 238

Buy Matrix Labs below Rs 238 keeping a stoploss of Rs 232 in it.

Forthcoming Dividend List - Indian Mutual Funds

Div. Scheme Name Rate* Record Date
Birla Balance Fund 50.00% 20-Jan-06
Birla Equity Plan 40.00% 17-Feb-06
Birla sunlife Basic Industries Fund 100.00% 24-Mar-06
Birla Sunlife Buy India Fund 75.00% 24-Mar-06
Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity 70.00% 24-Feb-06
Deustche Alpha Equity Fund 20.00% 09-Jan-06
Deustche Investment Opportunity Fund 20.00% 04-Feb-06
DSPML Opportunity Fund 40.00% Jan-06
DSPML TIGER Fund 25.00% Feb-06
DSPML TOP 100 Fund 30.00% Jan-06
ING Vysya Balance Fund 30.00% 26-Dec-05
JM Auto Fund 45.00% 14-Feb-06
JM Equity Fund 40.00% 27-Mar-06
JM Healthcare Fund 20.00% 12-Jan-06
Kotak 30 10.00% 27-Dec-05
Pru ICICI Balance Fund 15.00% 26-Dec-05
Pru ICICI Power Fund 15.00% 26-Dec-05
Reliance Banking Fund 50.00% 30-Mar-06
Reliance Growth Fund 75.00% 29-Mar-06
Reliance Vision Fund 75.00% 28-Mar-06
UTI Brand Value Fund 35.00% 31-Jan-06
UTI Mastervalue Fund 55.00% 15-Feb-06
UTI Service Sector Fund 101.00% 19-Jan-06
TATA Pure Equity Fund 20.00% 17-Jan-06
{ * - All Divident Rates and dividend dates are proposed and its subject to availability of surplus }

What is a Trading System? By Van K. Tharp, Ph.D

What is a Trading System?
What most people think of as a trading system, I would call a trading strategy. This would consist of eight parts: 1) a market filter; 2) set up conditions; 3) an entry signal; 4) a worst case stop loss; 5) re-entry when it is appropriate; 6) profit-taking exits; 7) a position sizing algorithm; and 8) you might need multiple systems for different market conditions.

A market filter is a way of looking at the market to determine if the market is
appropriate for your system. For example, we can have quiet trending markets, volatile trending markets, flat quiet markets, and flat volatile markets. And, of course, the trending markets can either be bullish or bearish. Your system might only work well in one of those market conditions. As a result, you need a filter to determine whether your system has a high probability of working. Should you trade your system or not? The set up conditions amount to your screening criteria. For example, if you trade stocks, there are 7,000 plus stocks that you might decide to invest in at any time. As a result, most people employ a series of screening criteria to reduce that number down to 50 stocks or less.
The entry signal would be a unique signal that you’d use on stocks that meet your initial screen to determine when you might enter a position—either long or short. There are all sorts of signals one might use for entry, but it typically involves some sort of move in your direction that occurs after a particular set-up occurs.
The next component of your trading system is your protective stop. This is the worstcase loss that you would want to experience and it defined 1-R (or your initial risk) for you. Your stop might be some value that will keep you in the stock for a long time (i.e., a 10% drop in the price of the stock) or something that will get you out quickly if the market turns against you (i.e., a 10 cent drop). Protective stops are absolutely essential. Markets don’t go up forever and they don’t go down forever. You need stops to protect yourself. As I said in Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom, entering the market without a protective stop is like driving through town ignoring red lights. You might get to your destination eventually, but your chances of doing so successfully and safely are very slim.
The fifth component of a trading system is your re-entry strategy. Quite often when you get stopped out of a position, the stock will turn around in the direction that favors your old position. When this happens, you might have a perfect chance for profits that is not covered by your original set-up and entry conditions. As a result, you also need to think about re-entry criteria. When might you want to get back into a closed out position? Under what conditions would this be feasible and what criteria would trigger your reentry? These are what you need to address in thinking about re-entry.
The sixth component of a trading system is your exit strategy. The exit strategy could be very simple. For example, it might simply be a 25% trailing stop where you adjust the stop to 75% of the closing price whenever a stock makes a new high. The stop is always adjusted up, never down. However, you may have many possible exits in addition to a trailing stop. For example, a large volatility move (i.e., 1.5 times the average daily volatility) against you in a single day is a good exit. Crossing a significant moving average (i.e., the 50 day) might be a great exit. Technical signals are good exits (i.e., breaking a significant trend line.) Exits are one of the more critical parts of your system. It is one factor in your trading of
which you have total control. And it is your exits that control whether or not you make money in the market or have small losses. You should spend a great deal of time and thought on your exit strategies.
The seventh component of your system is your position sizing algorithm. Position sizing is that part of your system that controls how much you trade. It determines how many shares of stock should you buy. A general recommendation would be to continually risk 1% of your portfolio. Thus, if you have a Rs. 25,000 portfolio, you wouldn’t want to risk more than Rs250. Let’s say you wanted to buy a stock at Rs10. You decided to keep a 25% trailing stop, meaning if the stock dropped 25% to Rs.7.50 you would exit your position. Since your stop is your risk per share, you would divide that Rs2.50 risk into Rs250 to determine the number of shares to purchase. SinceRs2.50 goes into Rs250 100 times, you would purchase 100 shares of stock. Notice that you would be buying Rs1,000 worth of stock (100 shares @ Rs10.00 each) or four times your risk of Rs250. This makes sense since your stop is 25% of the purchase price. Thus, your risk would be 25% of your total investment.
Finally, depending upon how robust your trading system is, you might need multiple trading systems for each type of market. At minimum, you might need one system for trending markets and another system for flat markets.

The Entire Trading System: Your Business Plan for Trading
Remember that I said that what most people consider a trading system, is simply a trading strategy that should be part of an overall business plan. Without the overall business plan, many people would still lose money. As a result, let’s look at the overall context in which a trading strategy should be made—your business plan. Nevertheless, here is a summary of what we consider to be essential for a good trading plan.
1) The Executive Summary. This is usually the last section written. It reviews all of the material of the plan and presents it in summary form. It should describe in
detail the objective of the plan and then briefly describe, without a lot of detail,
how the objectives will be achieved.
2) A Business Description. The business description should include the mission of the business, an overview of the business and its history, the products and services you provide (which is growth of capital and risk control as a trader), your
operations, operational considerations such as equipment needed and site location, and your organization and management of employees (if any). All of these topics are fairly self-explanatory, but you should take the time to write them out as part of your plan.
3) An Industry Overview and Competition. In the industry overview you need to
look at the factors influencing the market. For example, Ed Yardeni in his web
site lists ten major factors influencing the market. These include a globally
competitive economy, a revolution in innovation, wireless access to the Internet,
low tech companies having access to high tech tools and changing their
businesses as a result, the need to outsource to increase productivity, and many
other themes. See www.yardeni.com for more information. In addition, you also
need to know who/what your competition is. Who are you trading against? What
are their beliefs? What advantages do they have that you don’t? What
advantages do you have that they don’t?
4) Self-Knowledge Section: You need to know your strengths and your weaknesses and list them in this section. You need to know how to capitalize on your strengths and avoid (or overcome) your weaknesses.
5) Your Trading Plan Itself. The tactical trading plan should be a part of your
trading plan, but it should also include (a) your trading beliefs that form the basis
of your plan, (b) any strategic alliances you may have, and (c) what you plan to do in terms of education and coaching.
6) Your Trading Edges: I believe your trading plan should also include a listing of
all of the trading edges that you have in the market. When you list your edges,
you can review them often and be sure that you capitalize upon them. For
example, your edges might include a) the fact that you don’t have to trade; b) your understanding of R-multiples and position sizing (which give people a huge edge over those who have no idea about these concepts); c) your ability to read a level II screen to get excellent stock trades; d) your sources of information; e) your ability to plan well in advance so that you have a game plan each day; f) your skill in following the ten tasks of trading; g) your knowledge of yourself and your strengths and weaknesses. This is just a sample of the possible edges that you might have over the average trader/investor.
7) Financial Information. This section should include three parts. The first part is
your budget. How much money do you have? What will the trading process cost
you? The second part will be your cash flow statement. Does your plan make
sense in terms of cash flow? And finally, the third part will include profit and
loss statements. If you have no trading record, you need to make estimates based on historical testing and based on paper trading.
8) Worst Case Contingency Planning. Things always happen that you have not
accounted for or planned for in your trading plan. How will you deal with these
elements? What will you do if any of these things come up? How will you make
decisions when these elements come up?

Advice received -Buy Sujana Metal with short term target of Rs 84

Following trading strategies for 15.12.2005 were received from traders


Buy Suzlon Energy for target of Rs 1010

Buy Suzlon Energy at current price with a target price of Rs 1010. Keep a stoploss at Rs 890.

Hold Asian Electronics with target of Rs 390

Hold Asian Electronics with a target price of Rs 390 keeping a stoploss at Rs 290.

Buy Sujana Metal with short term target of Rs 84

Buy Sujana Metal with a short term target price of Rs 84 keeping a stoploss at Rs 64. Its medium term target would be Rs 110. On achieving short term target


Buy Albert David with short term target of Rs 145

Buy Albert David with a short term target price of Rs 145 keeping a stoploss at Rs 118. Its medium term target would be Rs 180. On achieving short term


Buy GKW with short term target of Rs 44

Buy GKW with a short term target price of Rs 44 keeping a stoploss at Rs 25. Its medium term target would be Rs 75. On achieving short term target increase


Hold Tata Steel with stoploss below Rs 374

Tata Steel, the steel major continues to move up as anticipated. It is trying to stage a breakout and so long as it stays above Rs 374 it would remain

Advice received from a High Profile Broker

This for Dec 2 nd. Viewers can evaluate the calls your self

Buy Mercator Lines Target for Short term target 149 Medium term 240 with stop loss 109
Buy Graphite for Short term target 330 with stop loss 275
Buy Gesco above 365 with Stop loss 333 for target 400
Buy Greaves Cotton above 262, with SL 246 for target 320

Trading Newsletter received by me

Two people start by trading the stock markets. After one month, one day-trader went broke / bust, while the other day trader returned a 20% profit. Have you ever wondered, as I have, what makes this kind of difference in people's trading? It is not always a native intelligence, talent or dedication. It is not that one person wants success and the other does not. The difference lies within the psychology of the brain. Your psychological mind set is likely to play a larger role in your trading career than anything else associated with your day-to-day practice.
Here are some good examples: One person looks at a glass ½ empty, while the other personality looks at that same cup as ½ full. Someone may look at problems and call them stress, while another individual looks at troubles as challenges. Another one may look at a ship in a storm as an adventurous roller coaster ride, while another human being sees the same situation as a hurricane that has a death call.
I am not the only one to discover this… In his book, "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom", the renowned American psychologist Dr. Van Tharp discusses the role psychology plays in trading success. He divides trading into three Ingredients. SystemMoney Management, and Psychology of thought and emotion. Tharp discovered that the trader's psychology make up of the mind has a lot to do with his success than anything else does. In short, the psychology of the mind refers to your thinking and emotional actions and responses to any given situation…In trading, fear, greed, vanity, pride, hope, jealousy, denial - all these can affect investment decisions. Although, your aim in the market is to maximize your profit and minimize your risk, thinking and emotions often make this easier said than done. FOR EXAMPLE - Traders, who cannot control the psychological process of thought and emotion, make the wrong decision - such as the common amateur mistake of holding a losing position in the belief that someday it will become a winner. Loss aversion is a classic mistake. By nature, humans value a loss. Therefore, you suffer almost twice as much pain losing $1 as you would in gaining $1. Loss aversion compels most traders to hold a losing stock while it plummets downward. This clouded judgment clearly contradicts the trading adage: cut your losses and let your profits run. Emotional investors hold losing positions because they view paper losses differently from realized losses. An investor also engages in other forms of irrational behavior. This is what opens up problems for new traders, and then they lose manage money very quickly in the markets. Most people completely wiped out their finances within the first year of trading. So, as you can see, your thinking and emotions play a big part in determining whether you fail or succeed, but did you know that thought and emotion make up two different spheres pertaining to trading success?
What are the 5 Biggest Mistakes Traders & Investors Make!
1)Trading against the major trend - Fighting the momentum of the market. Not knowing the direction of the major trend and how to accurately define a change in trend direction. Not knowing how to strategically time market entry and exit. 2)Holding losing positions too long - Failure to accept losses as part of the trading process. Associating losses with being wrong or losing. Not knowing when to get out of a market that has signalled a change in trend to limit losses. 3)Exiting profitable trades too early - Fear of losing unrealised profits. Trying to outsmart the markets by getting out on a presumed extreme price, then missing the big trends when they occur. Not knowing when to hold a winning position to maximize gains. 4)Trading too big - Trying to make too much, too quickly. Allocating too much capital to one position, exposing the account to excessive risk and reducing the protection from balance and diversification. Not knowing or not managing the risk. 5)Trading too often - Over-trading or "churning" the account. "Day Trading" falls into this category if the total transaction fees (commissions) are too high relative to your account size. Not controlling the costs in trading.

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